WILL THERE BE AN EB-3 RETROGRESSION IN NOVEMBER, AND IF SO WHY AND WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE FUTURE?

Last week’s October 2021 Visa Bulletin was hotly anticipated.  Over the summer it became apparent that the 140,000 employment based visa quota would at least double in fiscal year 2022, which starts October 1, 2021.  The expectation was that IV dates would leap forward.

And yet when the October 2021 was released not only did the dates stay the same, but the VB included a note at the end,

Employment Third:

Worldwide: A final action date could be imposed as early as November

China: A retrogression of this date could occur as early as November

India: A retrogression of this date could occur as early as November

Mexico: A final action date could be imposed as early as November

Philippines: A final action date could be imposed as early as November

With that we now expect retrogression in all EB categories starting in November. Charlie Oppenheim, who runs creates each month’s Visa Bulletin for the Department of State, said as much in his monthly You Tube video broadcast. 

There appears to be two reasons for this change in expectation:

-There were many more I-485, Adjustments of Status filed in FY 2020 than anyone in the DOS expected.  Likewise, the USCIS is approving more I-485s.  This is a disappointing answer because most of these I-485s were filed in October and November 2020.  This insight should have been apparent much earlier.

-The Department of State knows that their overseas consulates and embassies have the ability to dramatically increase processing of consular processed visas.  This is good news for overseas for consular processed immigrant visas, like nurses, because it implies that the DOS is holding back immigrant visas instead of allowing the entire quota to be used by AOS cases.  On the other hand, it is surely disappointing if you are in the US awaiting a visa. 

MU Law’s interpretation is that if the overseas consulates and embassies do not dramatically increase their visa issuance, that these visas should be put back into the AOS queue later in FY 2022.