VISA PROJECTIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS

MU Lawyers were at AILA’s annual convention in Boston last week.  In discussing the Visa Bulletin with several attorneys, and piecing together some information from DOS officials, here are our unofficial projections for the remainder of Fiscal Year 2014, which ends September 30, 2014.

EB-1  

EB-1 is expected to stay current through the Fiscal Year.

EB-2

China:  Chinese EB-2 numbers could progress, although it does not appear that it will move too quickly.

India:  Indian EB-2 numbers jumped dramatically between May and June 2014, progressing nearly four years to September 2008.  Our sense is that the Indian EB-2 number will continue to stay in 2008, and will continue to progress because the DOS does not want a single visa to go unused in this category.  The number may temporarily become unavailable in September 2014, which is common.

All Other: All other EB-2 should remain Current for the remainder of the Fiscal Year.

EB-3

China: Chinese EB-3 numbers have been on a wild ride this year.  They were into 2012 for much of the year before a massive retrogression in June.  There is a sense that the DOS is unsure just how many numbers are needed.  MU Law’s read is that the number will progress this summer, perhaps several years.  Again, the DOS is trying to insure that all numbers in this category are used.

India: The DOS has this category accurately projected.  As a result India EB-3 will continue its very slow progression.

Philippines:  It seems unlikely that this number will get into 2010.  That having been said, the number should progress steadily in FY 2015.

All Other:  The DOS tapped the breaks on this number in June, stalling it at April 2011.  MU Law’s sense is that the number will progress before becoming temporarily unavailable later in the Summer. 

WANT TO HAVE DINNER AT AILA ANNUAL?

For the last several years a group of AILA lawyers who practice in healthcare have gotten together for a dinner on the Thursday of AILA Annual week. We have about 15 people signed up already.  It is a great chance to catch up with old friends (and new ones!). It is a casual event.

If you are an AILA attorney who is interested in attending this year’s dinner, please let me know how many will be attending from your group by Monday. Friends, spouses, etc. are also welcome.

COULD REP. CANTOR’S LOSS HELP IMMIGRATION REFORM?

Well, in spite of my headline the answer is probably not, but there is some hope.

Rep. Cantor (R-VA) was the second-in-command in the Republican-majority House of Representatives.  It is generally believed that any material Immigration Reform measure must be driven by the House Republicans.  Rep. Cantor was generally known to be a pro-business Republican, who was helping push for immigration reform behind-the-scenes, or at least that is what his primary opponent, Dave Brat, led central Virginians to believe.  Mr. Brat’s shocking primary upset on Tuesday seems to mean that immigration reform is dead for 2014.

So could Rep. Cantor’s loss actually help?

It seems unlikely but it may not be as bad as it seem today.  For one, other immigration-friendly southern Republicans, such as Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC), coasted to primary victories.  Second, and the reason for my provocative headline, is Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).  Rep. McCarthy is the next-in-line for Rep. Cantor’s No. 2 position within the House Republican leadership.  As this article in the Irish Central points out, Rep. Cantor “represents a central California district where pro-immigrant issues, immigrant issues, such as the need for immigrant labor among the huge farming concerns, are critical.  His district is 35 percent Latino and he is on record as favoring a version of immigration reform.”

Yet again leadership on the issue turns back to the Majority Leader Rep. John Boehner (R-OH).  Rep. Boehner has straddled the line between the pro and anti-immigration wings of his party, a line that seems aimless.  If he can articulate a strategy immigration reform might have a chance.  For now, all we have is glimmers of hope.

JULY 2014 VISA BULLETIN

The Department of State has just released the July 2014 Visa Bulletin.  This is the tenth Visa Bulletin of the 2014 US Fiscal Year, which began on October 1, 2013.  

The Philippines EB-3 jumped again.  It is now into 2009, which is a two year jump in the last two months.

India EB-2 also dramatically moved forward.  It progressed four years to September 2008.

The Chinese EB-3 number stayed back at October 2006.  

The All Other EB-3 held steady as well.  It remains at April 2011.  Our sense is that it will not progress until the next US fiscal year.

Employment- Based	All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed	China - mainland born	INDIA	MEXICO	PHILIPPINES
1st	C	C	C	C	C
2nd	C	01JUL09	01SEP08	C	C
3rd	01APR11	01OCT06	01NOV03	01APR11	01JAN09

US EXTENDS CW-1 PROGRAM THROUGH 2019

Since 2008, the US has sought to harmonize the immigration laws of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) with the mainland US.  Part of this initiative was the establishment of a CNMI-Only Transitional Worker (CW-1) visa classification allows employers in the CNMI to apply for temporary permission to employ nonimmigrant workers who are otherwise ineligible to work under other nonimmigrant worker categories. The CW-1 classification provides a method for transition from the former CNMI foreign worker permit system to the U.S. immigration system.  The law also provides a CW-2 for dependents of CW-1 visa entrants.

On June 3, 2014, the US Department of Labor announced that it was extending this program through December 31, 2019.  The CW-1 program had been set to expire at the end of this year.

Philippine nationals make up a large number of the CW-1 visas that are granted.  The US Embassy – Manila has a webpage dedicated to explaining the CW-1 process.

The largest island in the CNMI is Saipan, where 90% of the CNMI population resides.  For this reason many people use the “Saipan” to mean “CNMI”.