NEXT STEPS ON CIR

Last week the Senate Judiciary Committee passed S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act, or what is generally called Comprehensive Immigration Reform (CIR).  While this was a significant step, we are still a long way from actually having CIR as law.

S.744 does many things.  This post will not talk discuss the specifics of the law but will focus on the next procedural steps that must happen if CIR is to become law.

From here, the bill moves to the full Senate.  The conventional wisdom is that in June the full Senate will pass the bill.   After the Senate acts is where it gets interesting.

What the House will do is a wide-open question.   Some think that if the Senate passes the bill with a healthy majority, then the House will fall in line.  While the House will have its own bill, it may look a lot like S.744, if S.744 passes the full Senate with wide support.  For example, a 70/30 pass rate means that a lot of Republicans and Democrats have voted for it, which means strong bipartisan support. 

If this happens we would expect to see House action before their recess in early August.  Pres. Obama will certainly sign the bill; there is zero chance that he will veto it.  So the next key date is mid/late June to see what the full Senate will do.

On the other hand if the Senate cannot get to the “magic 70 number” then the House may craft a dramatically different bill, and predictions become muddy.  If the House starts from scratch with its own bill this could drag on for a while. 

At this point the odds are 50/50 that we get CIR in 2013, and the odds improved significantly with the Senate Judiciary Committee’s actions.