Thursday, September 6, 2012

VISA BULLETIN PROJECTIONS FOR OCTOBER 2012

The Department of State manages the Visa Bulletin program, which is the system for the allocation of immigrant visas (green cards). The system was designed by Congress to allocate visas according to a preference system based on the applicant's country of birth and their visa category (e.g. EB-1, EB-2, EB-3). New immigrant visas are allocated at the beginning of the US fiscal year, which is October 1, 2012. The EB-2 and EB-3 visa categories are used by many healthcare occupations including: registered nurses, physical therapists, occupational therapists and speech language pathologists.

AILA has met with the Department of State to obtain the projections for the upcoming 2013 fiscal year (October 1, 2012 - September 30, 2013). Several important notes came out of the meeting.

EB-1 usage is increasing. This indirectly impacts the EB-2 and EB-3 categories because unused EB-1 numbers are allocated to EB-2 and EB-3. Increasing EB-1 usage means fewer numbers to trickle down into the lower EB categories.

EB-2 India will be 2006. This is bad news for Indian natives who had hoped to see numbers similar to the favorable numbers that were posted in early 2012. The DOS expects slow movement in this category. China EB-2 will be retrogressed, although not as badly as India.

EB-2 Worldwide (Other) should be current. Other Eb-2 countries should be current for most of the year, although it will retrogress Summer 2013, as it does in most summers. Readers should not be alarmed in the October 2012 Visa Bulletin EB-2 number is not Current; it will be current in November 2012. The DOS may do this to slow the applications in October 2012. The visa number demand is greatest every October. By slowing the application flow in October, it allows the DOS and USCIS to efficiently allocate adjudicating officers’ time.

EB-3 Numbers. EB-3 Numbers will move at about the same pace as they did in 2012.

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23 comments:

  1. wengSeptember 6, 2012 at 3:15 PM

    Is is possible that the August 28, 2006 priority date be catered on the October 2012 visa bulletin?thanks!

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  2. MU LawSeptember 7, 2012 at 10:18 AM

    @Weng - what category? All-Other EB3? India EB-2? China EB-2?

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  3. wengSeptember 9, 2012 at 10:05 PM

    EB3 Philippines

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  4. MU LawSeptember 10, 2012 at 9:21 AM

    @Weng - I think it's possible. At worst maybe an extra month or two. You should contact your I-140 employer now so that you are ready to move ahead once the dates progress.

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  5. k.shSeptember 10, 2012 at 10:42 AM

    What about me ?
    Is it ossible for me to be current this month?
    EB3ROW
    PD;19h of October

    ReplyDelete
  6. UnknownSeptember 10, 2012 at 10:16 PM

    This is the upcoming October visa bulletin, it just came out Sept. 10th

    http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5770.html

    My priority date is March 15, 2012, please advice on when my papers might be processed...

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  7. osmanSeptember 11, 2012 at 4:44 PM

    Should we understand that ROW has almost 100% chance of being current next month?

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  8. MU LawSeptember 12, 2012 at 10:23 AM

    @K.sh - What year?

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  9. MU LawSeptember 12, 2012 at 10:23 AM

    @Lala J - What category (Eb2 or Eb3)?

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  10. MU LawSeptember 12, 2012 at 10:24 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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  11. UlrasonicSeptember 12, 2012 at 2:37 PM

    Is the likelihood of EB3 being current next month will include all categories? My PD is 21 March 2008 Phil.Thanks

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  12. MU LawSeptember 12, 2012 at 2:57 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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  13. MU LawSeptember 12, 2012 at 2:57 PM

    @Osman - Yes. My expectation is that it is highly likely that EB3 ROW will be current or only retrogressed 2-4 months in Nov.

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  14. wengSeptember 13, 2012 at 6:53 PM

    what about EB3 Philippines

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  15. MU LawSeptember 14, 2012 at 1:51 PM

    @Weng - My sense is that the EB3 number will move at about the rate that it did last year, until it passes August 2007, which is a key date. After Aug 2007, the EB3 number should move much quicker.

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  16. wengSeptember 14, 2012 at 3:43 PM

    so what about august 28, 2006 then, will it be covered on the next vb?

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  17. UnknownSeptember 15, 2012 at 8:52 AM

    May I know your opinions about why the EB3 Phils did'nt move this month and please explain why is August a key date and after that it would be faster movement?Thanks!

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  18. UnknownSeptember 15, 2012 at 8:54 AM

    I mean "August 2007"

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  19. MU LawSeptember 17, 2012 at 10:25 AM

    @Nerv- August 2007 is a key date because July /August 2007 was when the USCIS and DOS improperly forwarded all EB2 and EB3 visa bulletin dates. All EB2 and EB3 dates were current for about 6 weeks in July/Aug 2007. This resulted in hundreds of thousands of I-485 filings, flooding the USCIS' offices. These backlogs have slowly been worked through in the five years since this "visagate". The last "visagate" filings are mid-August 2007.

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  20. UnknownSeptember 17, 2012 at 10:50 AM

    Thanks MU Law, your site is very informative. Anyways,what is your prediction on the EB3 Phils. next month?Do you think it will be stagnant for a longer time or will move on track again since it is a new fiscal year. My pd is January 2007.

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  21. MU LawSeptember 18, 2012 at 12:55 PM

    @Nerv - My guess is that the Phils EB3 number will move between 2-4 weeks. Thanks for reading the blog and the kind words!

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  22. AnonymousSeptember 27, 2012 at 12:05 AM

    Hi MU Law,

    What are the chances that I will get my GC this year 2012. My PD date is 10/25/06 EB3 Philippines.

    ReplyDelete

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