Tuesday, September 11, 2012

OCTOBER 2012 VISA BULLETIN WITH ANALYSIS

The Department of State has just released the October 2012 Visa Bulletin. It is somewhat more pessimistic than was expected, although some of the retrogression may be based on the DOS’ desire to slow the applications in October 2012. As we explained in a recent post, the visa number demand is greatest every October. By slowing the application flow in October, it allows the DOS and USCIS to efficiently allocate adjudicating officers’ time.

The biggest surprise is that the India EB-2 number has retrogressed all the way back to September 2004. This is likely a very conservative visa number and we would expect the number to move forward in the next few months. As a point of reference, the November 2010 Visa Bulletin was May 2006 and there simply cannot be that many EB-2 immigrant visas pending from 2004-2006, in spite of a likely uptick in EB-2 conversions from EB-3 priority dates. Applicants with India EB-2 priority dates from 2004-2006 have been able to apply for their Adjustments of Status without much impediment for two years.

The All Other and Philippine EB-2 date (January 2012) is where we expected it to be. Our sense is that this date will also move forward in the upcoming months and may become current.

The EB-3 numbers continue their very slow progressions. These numbers are only noteworthy by their consistency. MU Law expects this trend to continue into the future.


October 2012 Visa Bulletin
All Other CountriesChina IndiaPhilippines
EB-201JAN12 15JUL0701SEP0401JAN12
EB-322OCT0608FEB0615OCT0201AUG06




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10 comments:

  1. ManfredBSeptember 13, 2012 at 12:58 PM

    Can we expect some significant movement for EB 3 Philippines in the coming months? I've noticed in the demand data that numbers are reducing by close to a thousand every month for the past three months. Does this mean that some of these applications had been abandoned? My priority date is Nov 27, 2007.

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  2. James007September 13, 2012 at 9:58 PM

    How about for EB 2 Philippines in November. What can we expect?

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  3. wengSeptember 13, 2012 at 10:37 PM

    @james007 How did you apply under EB2?

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  4. MU LawSeptember 14, 2012 at 1:49 PM

    @Manfred: I'm sure that many of those old EB3 visa applications have been abandoned. My sense is that the EB3 number will move at about the rate that it did last year, until it passes August 2007, which is a key date. After Aug 2007, the EB3 number should move much quicker.

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  5. MU LawSeptember 14, 2012 at 1:50 PM

    @James007 - I think that Philippines EB2 will be current or nearly-current in the forthcoming November 2012 Visa Bulletin.

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  6. UsRnSeptember 14, 2012 at 5:28 PM

    how about sept 22 2006? any chance to be current this year? currently in the u.s under h status. but expiring early next year.

    ReplyDelete
  7. UsRnSeptember 14, 2012 at 5:55 PM

    Anyway under EB3 philippines

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  8. MU LawSeptember 17, 2012 at 10:06 AM

    @UsRn - It will be close. You will want to make sure that you learn about INA245(k) from your immigration attorney if your H-1 expires.

    ReplyDelete
  9. trSeptember 17, 2012 at 4:37 PM

    Please sign this petition:

    http://www.change.org/petitions/uscis-immigration-services-expedite-movement-in-eb2-india-priority-date?share_id=iqQKDKRMJH&utm_campaign=mailto_link&utm_medium=email&utm_source=share_petition

    ReplyDelete
  10. UsRnSeptember 18, 2012 at 6:17 PM

    So do you think it won't get current this year or by jan?

    ReplyDelete

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