Visa Bulletin Analysis and Predictions

In the January 2010 Visa Bulletin, the Department of State made “best case” predictions on where the visa numbers would be in September 2010, which is the end of the Fiscal Year 2010. October 2010 is the first Visa Bulletin of Fiscal Year 2011.

In this Blog post, MU has done a analysis of the progress of these projections, including the just-released June 2010 Visa Bulletin. Most of the DOS' projections are proving to be accurate, with the notable exception of All Other EB3, including the Philippines.

India EB2
June 2010: 01FEB05.
Predicted Sept 2010: February through early March 2005
MU Comment: The India EB2 visa number is right on the mark.

China EB2
June 2010: 22NOV05.
Predicted Sept 2010: July through October 2005.
MU Comment: The China EB2 visa number has already surpassed the “best case” scenario, which is good news.

India EB3
June 2010: 22OCT01.
Predicted Sept 2010: January through February 2002.
MU Comment: The India EB3 number has steadily moved since January 2010, when the India EB3 number was 22JUN01. The number looks to be on pace to meet the predicted number.

China EB3
June 2010: 22JUN03.
Predicted Sept 2010: June through September 2003.
MU Comment: The China EB2 visa number is right on the mark.

All Other EB3 (incl. Philippines)
June 2010: 22 JUN 03.
Predicted Sept 2010: April through August 2005
MU Comment: This is the prediction that is the most disheartening. By now we would have expected the All Other EB3 to be well into 2004, and maybe even into 2005. The fact that the number is still in mid-2003 leads us to believe that the predicted date will not be reached.

That having been said, MU expects the All Other Visa Number to begin to move at a quicker pace. There does not appear too many cases that are still left that are this old on our roster of cases and on the roster of cases still with other attorneys.